Lesson 2.1 – Structured Analytic Techniques I: Assumptions, Indicators, and Evidence

Learning Objectives:

• Learn how to identify and test key assumptions

• Use indicator frameworks for early warning and change detection

• Improve the reliability of information by evaluating sources

Content Summary:

• Key Assumptions Check: uncover hidden assumptions in decisions

• Indicators & Warnings (I&W): define observable signals that support or challenge your assessments

• Source evaluation: reliability vs. credibility, corroboration, and weighting evidence

Learning Opportunities:

• Interactive exercise: Apply an I&W framework to an evolving policy scenario

• Case study walkthrough: How faulty assumptions led to surprise

• Group activity (if live): Assess a sample intelligence report for indicator gaps