Lesson 2.2 – Structured Analytic Techniques II: Hypotheses and Alternatives

Learning Objectives:

• Use structured techniques to generate and compare alternative explanations

• Avoid confirmation bias and “mirror imaging”

• Apply the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) framework

Content Summary:

• Hypothesis generation: moving from a “single story” to multiple scenarios

• ACH: scoring evidence for and against multiple hypotheses

• Diagnosing common reasoning errors: satisficing, availability bias, groupthink

Learning Opportunities:

• Video explainer: How ACH was used in a geopolitical analysis

• Worksheet: Develop competing hypotheses for a case of your choosing

• Practice: Use a scoring matrix to test evidence across hypotheses